College Football Playoff Scenarios

Dec 04, 2019

Brady King

Photo Cred: AP Images

I don’t know what algorithms the College Football Playoff committee uses, but it may need some quantum level calculations to figure this thing out.

What a wild Week 14, with the Iron Bowl being the game of the week.

Let’s get into the gritty nitty, starting with the Power Five conferences.

PAC-12

Utah plays Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship on Friday, December 6. This is the only Power Five championship game that is not on Saturday. It will be in Santa Clara, California at Levi’s Stadium, the home of the San Francisco 49ers.

Utah’s lone loss isn’t a great one, but at least USC somehow appears in both polls. Still, that was their only game against a ranked opponent and they faced a back-up QB in Matt Fink.

Oregon, on the other hand, has experienced two defeats, with the most painful one being the recent Week 13 disappointment against Arizona State on the road. I doubt they will take consolation in playing spoiler, but their game against Utah will have implications on the Rose Bowl and even the Cotton Bowl, which takes two at-large teams.

This will be Justin Herbert’s chance to make a statement going into next year’s NFL Draft.

SEC

Georgia plays LSU in the SEC Championship on Saturday, December 7. The beautiful Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, the home of the Atlanta Falcons, plays host to the big-time match-up.

Georgia’s shocking loss to South Carolina could have been devastating because it was home to a [now] 4-8 team. To add insult to injury, Bulldogs WR George Pickens will be out for the first half of the SEC Championship after an ejection Saturday. This adds to WR Lawrence Cager being out with an ankle and D’Andre Swift dealing with multiple minor injuries.

Regardless, a win next week will make up for it since Alabama now has two losses. The Crimson Tide were easily the favorite one-loss team until they lost to Auburn Saturday night. The Bulldogs will happily take that mantle.

The SEC Championship could impact the Sugar Bowl and the Orange Bowl, but Georgia is going against a juggernaut in LSU. Joe Burreaux is a beaxst and has raised his draft stock. Now a possible number one overall pick, he will pose a problem for even a top-4 Georgia defense.

BIG 10

Ohio State plays Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship on Saturday, December 7. It goes down in Indianapolis, Indiana at Lucas Oil Stadium, the home of the Indianapolis Colts and of course the NFL Combine.

Minnesota followed up their big win against Penn State with two disappointing losses in three weeks to knock them out of CFP contention.

Ohio State seems to be a lock even if they lose to Wisconsin, but I’ve seen crazier things. How about the Buckeyes keep things simple and beat a team they have already beat 38-7 just two months ago.

The Rose Bowl will come down to Wisconsin and Penn State.

BIG 12

The other one-loss teams, Oklahoma (Kansas State, road) and Baylor (Oklahoma, home), play each other in the Big 12 Championship on Saturday, December 7. Of course, this will be in Arlington, Texas, in Jerry World, aka AT&T Stadium, the home of the Dallas Cowboys.

Oklahoma had a tough one for Bedlam on the road in Stillwater, but they pulled away thanks to a targeting call that was a beautifully legal hit in a football purist’s mind. Ten years ago if you told me an offensive player in 2019 would be considered “defenseless” whilst receiving a live ball thus warranting an ejection for the opposing player making a textbook tackle, I would have laughed just as much as if you told me Donald Trump would also be president. What a time to be alive.

Obviously I agree the Sooners would still have won had the targeting not happened, especially since the Pokes were operating with a back-up QB, so it comes down to this weekend anyways.

Baylor looked like all hope was lost when they gave up a huge lead to Oklahoma in what could have been a huge signature win in Week 12. Fortunately, winning the Big 12 would also mean they would have the most “quality” loss amongst one-loss teams.

I’m more concerned with how Baylor does because I can’t rule out the Dallas Cowboys scouting them for a new head coach. Pun very much intended.

I wrote a separate article about the Utah Utes where I opine on the their fate. Don’t hate the player; don’t hate the game; hate the NCAA.

ACC

Clemson plays Virginia in the ACC Championship on Saturday, December 7. That game takes place in Charlotte, North Carolina at Bank of America Stadium, the home of the Carolina Panthers.

Of all the championship games, this would be the least likely candidate for an upset. While the world may be rooting for the Cavaliers, we can expect the reigning national champions to have a chance at defending their title.

Man, they have such an easy schedule. You let us all down, North Carolina. I trusted you, Mack Brown. <shakes head>

Virginia should be packing for the Orange Bowl.

Non Power-5

The Cotton Bowl is the only hope for the smaller conference champs to make a respectable bowl.

One-loss teams not in the CFP conversation whatsoever are Memphis, Boise State and Appalachian State.

Memphis’ loss came to [now] 8-4 Temple on the road. In spite of a signature win against powerhouse SMU–a school that churns out NFL wide receivers–a CFP berth would have been contingent upon an undefeated season, if that. Coincidentally, they immediately rematch Cincinnati for the AAC Championship whom they just beat on Black Friday.

Boise State got beat by BYU and App State by Georgia Southern, as if it matters.

App State will play the 9-2 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns in the Sun Belt Championship. The Broncos from Idaho will face 8-4 Hawaii in the Mountain West Championship.

The Mid-American Conference and Conference USA have 3-loss teams as their best, so better luck next year, guys.

Independents

As for Notre Dame, they lost their chance at the CFP with an embarrassing loss to Michigan. It’s always been hard to root for a team that doesn’t have to play in a conference championship because they can ride a single good victory as long as they don’t stumble. The 2012 Fighting Irish come to mind when they ended up getting smoked by Alabama.

Play like a runner-up today.

Scenarios, somewhat

Clemson, LSU, and OSU are the front-runners as the only Undefeateds. Front-runner may not be the right word, as if they aren’t deserving of their hard-earned positions.

It’s a challenge to prognosticate what losses in their respective championship games would mean. I prefer chaos, so I would enjoy them all to suffer in hopes it would lead to an expansion of the current system. I wouldn’t waste my time with a parlay, though.

That being said, Utah could be left out all the same. And they would complain all the same. But it would accomplish the same. How long until you think we see expansion? The day is coming...

Assuming the undefeateds all handle their bidness, the biggest question will then be which one-loss team gets the bid.

I’m skeptical Utah gets in over a 12-1 Oklahoma or 12-1 Baylor even, if the Bears were to get revenge on the Sooners.

It is inevitable that if Georgia wins, LSU will still get the 4th spot in the CFP after such a dominant regular season against such a difficult schedule.

If Georgia takes a second loss, they would be out. Utah doesn’t have a cake-walk against an Oregon team led by a future 1st-rounder. Would the committee favor them over the Big 12 champ? Doubtful.

Oklahoma has a Heisman candidate in Jalen Hurts, Baylor does not. Yet, all the more reason why Baylor winning the rematch gives them credibility. Justin Herbert’s forgettable year would maybe sabotage Utah’s resume.

I like Utah, but they don’t bring any more to the table than the small private school out of Waco who has as many Heisman winners in their history as Utah has “claimed” national championships.

The 2004 and 2008 Utes give the program legitimacy, but that is a decade ago. Scandals aside, the on-the-field successes in the Art Briles era for Baylor are more recent than what Urban Meyer accomplished for Utah. Neither are a darling like an SEC team, so your guess is as good as mine.

No matter what happens, I’m sure we’ll all be thinking the same thing: if only Tua had stayed healthy…